Green Street’s U.S. Sector Outlooks Examine Post-Pandemic Opportunities
As private equity investors poured record-breaking amounts of capital into commercial real estate in 2021, Green Street expanded its private market-level data capabilities. Specifically, the Self-Storage and Single-Family Rental (SFR) Outlooks, two of the most sought-after property types among private investors, include significant enhancements of more proprietary data:
- Market Grades
- Nominal cap rate time series data
- Market RevPAF (rent and occupancy) growth forecasts
- Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) time series
Non-Traditional Property Sector Opportunities
Widespread adoption of work-from-home (WFH) policies, enabling an unprecedented level of mobility among professionals since the onset of Covid-19, sparked demand for space in several niche sectors, including self-storage and SFR housing. Green Street expects this ongoing demand to bode well for both private and public market investors.
“Self-storage operations unequivocally benefited from the pandemic, and many related tailwinds appear permanent post-Covid, specifically those related to the ability to WFH,” says Spenser Allaway, a senior analyst and self-storage expert for Green Street. “Positive operating trends are likely to continue to attract new development capital this year, though a lot of low-hanging fruit, particularly in the top 20 markets, was picked off during the last supply wave from 2016 to 2019.”
“Revenue growth accelerated significantly in late 2020 and 2021 as pandemic-related demand led to all-time high occupancy rates, and unrivaled pricing power for landlords. While revenue growth is expected to decelerate, it should remain healthy heading into 2022, particularly during the first six months, due to strong sequential move-in rate growth in recent quarters,” she adds.
“A variety of factors, including favorable population growth trends, a dearth of competitive new supply, a geographic tilt toward the Sun Belt, and strained renter balance sheets, should create strong demand over the next five years,” explains John Pawlowski, a senior analyst and residential expert at Green Street.
“SFR revenue and NOI growth are expected to outpace most commercial property types over the long term. In the near term, SFR fundamentals will remain healthy as housing costs across the country continue to soar,” he concludes.
Read more about the SFR sector in Green Street’s latest blog.
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