In the Farrelly Brothers 1996 comedy classic Kingpin, actor Randy Quaid’s character Ishmael Boorg famously states “I want to go to Reno.” The storyline of the movie centers around a young Amish bowler making it to Reno, Nevada for a $1 million winner-take-all bowling tournament…accompanied by a lot of mishaps and hilarity along the way with fellow comedic legends Woody Harrelson and Bill Murray. Fast forward to today, and Reno has emerged as one of many tertiary₁ markets across the country that has seen considerable in-migration in recent years. Rising rents, historic inflation, and the increased adoption of remote work resulted in scores of people leaving the larger metros in hopes of a better quality of life. Along with all those U-Hauls, commercial real estate investors followed. The percentage of commercial real estate transaction volume occurring in tertiary markets has nearly doubled from roughly 10% in 2018 to just under 20% today₂.

The increased investor interest in tertiary markets has not gone unnoticed by Green Street, and we are proud to launch detailed coverage on an additional 334 markets across four core property sectors: apartments, industrial, office, and strip centers. Green Street’s goal has always been to help commercial real estate investors make the best possible capital allocation decisions: In the public market through REIT stock selection; in the private market through sector and market selection. The expanded tertiary market coverage aims to provide clients with the high-quality data they are looking for to better evaluate investment prospects in these smaller cities. What may or may not come as a surprise to Green Street clients, the “biggest little city in the world” – Reno, Nevada – screens as attractively priced across all four core property sectors. While submarket selection within Reno is key, the city benefits from being a top-10 casino / gaming hub, drafts off its close proximity to the affluent Lake Tahoe area, and sports the first Tesla Gigafactory to boot.

Green Street’s new tertiary market coverage looks similar to our existing coverage of the Top 50 markets in the U.S., complete with 5-year forecasts for operating fundamentals, cap rate time series, market grades, and commercial property price indices – all delivered through an interactive user interface and enhanced Market Snapshot reports. As per Green Street standards, all data is standardized to consistent definitions for easy comparability. A new feature rolling out with our tertiary market expansion is GreenStreetAI™ – our first formal implementation of artificial intelligence and large language models into the Green Street product suite. Green Street is taking a cautious approach in its adoption of artificial intelligence, and GreenStreetAI™ is initially limited to the tertiary market commentaries and basic data collection. That said, we are nonetheless excited about its possibilities.

For more information about Green Street's U.S. Tertiary Market Data expansion or to schedule a personalized walkthrough, click the link below.

Learn more about Green Street U.S. Tertiary Markets

1. There are 387 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) as defined by Census. Green Street categorizes these MSAs as “Top 50” and “Tertiary,” the former containing 50 markets and the latter 334 markets. Green Street has three less markets than Census, as three MSAs are included within the market boundaries of the Green Street Top 50.
2. As measured by Green Street’s sales transaction database.

Disclosure: The Green Street Forecasting tool is an estimation of future events based on market trends in historical data that have proved to provide actionable insights during past market cycles. Green Street makes no representations or warranties as to any future performance of such metrics under any market cycles.