Off the back of the recently published 2024 Pan-European Sector Outlook Reports, Green Street hosted a discussion for those wanting to effectively navigate European real estate markets and capitalize on the best opportunities ahead.

Marie Dormeuil, Head of European Market Analytics, opined on changes on the horizon for core commercial property sectors at the market level. She provided valuable insights on each sector independently and then explained how they correlate to each other when observing fundamentals expectations, valuation, pricing, and returns.

Key Takeaways

M-RevPAM growth – a Green Street proprietary metric that combines effective market rent and occupancy –  was the go-to measure  used by Green Street’s research team to assess the estimates from 2023 and review which sectors have fared better or fared worse than anticipated across the four core sectors.

The residential sector saw a continuous and stellar growth in 2023 as demand continued to outstrip supply.  For industrial, rent growth continued its support trajectory as demand remained stronger than our original underwritings despite increases in vacancies. The retail sector, after seven years of tepid growth and downward revisions, has gone through a reset phase. Thus, translating to a better starting position moving forward through 2024. Office is the only sector that was further revised down, mostly due to further rental growth erosion and prevalent vacancies.

Upon analyzing the factors behind these changes, Marie outlined the expectations for 2024 by geography and sector.

According to Marie, Gothenburg and Stockholm are poised to outperform in three out of the four core sectors in 2024. Conversely, Manchester and Madrid are expected to underperform amongst the group.

Watch the full webinar Pan-European Private Markets: Take Your Pick to get a  deep dive and proprietary analytics for specific markets in each sector.

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